By Frederic Pierce and John Mariani
Staff writers
The race for Syracuse mayor was close enough at the end of last week that either Matt Driscoll or Joanie Mahoney could claim to be ahead, a survey of likely city voters shows.
The survey, conducted Friday and Saturday for The Post-Standard by the Zogby International polling firm, also showed that a sizeable pool of undecided voters remained out there for the candidates to sway, and that neither candidate was viewed unfavorably by a large percentage of voters.
Nearly half of those surveyed, however, felt the city was moving in the wrong direction, and a similar percentage said it was time for someone new to be mayor.
"This is a very close race," said John Zogby, the head of the polling firm. "It's bad news for the incumbent, but the deal has not been closed by any stretch. Syracuse likes Matt Driscoll on a personal level."
According to the poll, 39.5 percent of the voters surveyed said they would choose Driscoll, a Democrat, if the mayoral election were held the day they were asked. About 37.4 percent said they would choose Republican challenger Mahoney.
Howie Hawkins, the Green Party candidate, received 3.6 percent. Since the survey of 509 registered voters had an error margin of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, the findings could mean - at one extreme - that Driscoll was favored by a margin of up to 10.9 percent. It could also mean, conversely, that voters preferred Mahoney by as much as 6.7 percent.
Mahoney declined to discuss the result of her own polling, but said Zogby International's result is "consistent with what our campaign has found."
"We know we're in a very close race," Mahoney said. "I think within the past couple of weeks the momentum is in our favor. It's clear that our message is resonating with voters. I think people share a sense of disappointment over our lack of progress over the past four years."
Driscoll Tuesday would not discuss the poll in detail. Instead, his re-election campaign held a news conference accusing The Post-Standard of trying to influence the race by hiring someone to do a poll and publishing the results.
"We don't believe the numbers are correct," Driscoll said. "I've said from day one that we're going to take our case to the people, and I'm continuing to do so."
The closenessof the race puts a lot of power into the hands of the nearly one of every five respondents who told Zogby International they had not yet decided which candidate to vote for.
With this many undecided votes in play, either major party candidate could change their numbers significantly by persuading these voters to move to their side.
"Anyone who pays attention to politics knows that when an incumbent appears to be in trouble, as this one is, they take on a different tone. We're bracing ourselves for a much more negative tone," Mahoney said.
The survey also shows a general lack of enthusiasm for either candidate, Zogby said.
"There doesn't appear to be a lot of excitement for either candidate," Zogby said. "I think this would have been a perfect time for a fresh face, and neither of these candidates are that fresh face."
Hawkins has been positioning himself as an alternative to the mainstream candidates, and was surprised the poll didn't show more support for him.
"I think I'mhigher than that, based on talking to folks and from the people who said they were voting for me from quarters I didn't expect it - people you normally wouldn't expect to be voting Green," Hawkins said.
The survey questions seem phrased in terms of Mahoney's case against Driscoll, Hawkins said. He said people are more responsive when he presents his platform, which includes starting a public power utility, a municipal bank, greater neighborhood involvement in government and a development plan that doesn't hinge on Destiny USA.
Mahoney said her campaign will look closely at the newspaper's published data to learn the concerns of undecided voters and address them.
Just more than half of the voters (52.2 percent) polled said they had a favorable impression of Mahoney.
About 29 percent, however said they didn't know the challenger enough to have an impression.
Zogby said Mahoney has a well-known name, but people are still waiting for her to make her case for being mayor.
"The poll shows the mayor is in trouble, but the fact that she's not running away with this indicates she's got a lot more work to do," Zogby said
Part of the uphill battle is that, although it's unclear who voters think would make a better mayor, more of them think favorably of Driscoll than Mahoney.
More than 63 percent of the respondents said they had a "very favorable" or "somewhat favorable" opinion of the mayor, according to the survey. Fewer than 27 percent had an unfavorable impression.
For a mayorwho has been in office for four years during some difficult times, that's actually pretty good, Zogby said.
Driscoll has problems, however, within his own party, according to the poll. Slightly more than half of all likely voters registered as Democrats - 55.8 percent - are ready to vote for Driscoll. And 61.6 percent of those Democrats think the city is headed in the wrong direction, the survey shows.
That shows weak support among the people who should be the mayor's strongest supporters, Zogby said.
Driscoll did much better among likely black voters than Mahoney- 53.2 percent to 15.7 percent - that support is low for a Democratic candidate, according to Zogby. A Democrat usually wants about 85 percent of the black vote, Zogby said.
About one-third of the respondents said the city was better off since Driscoll assumed the reins of city government from former Mayor Roy Bernardi in 2001, compared with 16.8 percent who said it was worse off.
Of the respondents who had a favorable impression of Driscoll, nearly 70 percent qualified it by saying it was "somewhat" favorable. It was similar for Mahoney, where 66 percent of the voters who looked at her positively said their impression was "somewhat" favorable.
"These are just not stellar, enthusiastic remarks," Zogby said.
© 2005 The Post-Standard. Used with permission.
Posted by syracusegreens at October 19, 2005 04:21 AM