Poll results suggest Driscoll, Mahoney are closer than they were in October.
By Frederic Pierce and John Mariani
Staff writers
Nearly three weeks of relentless campaigning has knocked some undecided Syracuse voters off the fence, but Matt Driscoll and Joanie Mahoney remain in a virtual dead heat in their race for mayor, results from The Post-Standard's newest survey show.
About 43.3 percent of the 500 likely Syracuse voters surveyed Wednesday and Thursday by Zogby International said that if the election were that day, they would vote for Driscoll, a Democrat, or were leaning his way.
About 42.2 percent said they'd go with Mahoney, a Republican, or were leaning toward voting for her. About 7.4 percent said they preferred or were leaning toward Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins.
The remaining 7.1 percent said they were too undecided to say which way they were leaning.
The result suggests the race has tightened slightly since mid-October, when Zogby International conducted its first mayoral election survey for the newspaper.
"This is as close as it gets. It's not only a statistical dead heat, but a genuine dead heat," said John Zogby, founder of the polling firm. "I won't make any predictions on this one. Either one of the candidates can win this."
Figuring in the margin for error, the new survey indicates Driscoll could be leading Mahoney by as much as 10.1 percentage points, or trailing her by as much as 7.9 percentage points.
"This poll is good political theater, but it's not what the mayor's campaign is about," said Dan Maffei, Driscoll's campaign coordinator. "It's the voters who decide elections, not the pollsters. The mayor is looking forward to Tuesday." Driscoll was not available for an interview, Maffei said.
Mahoney said she was "encouraged by the fact that our message is resonating with people. In all these polls we continue to inch up. We are very happy to be in the race we're in right now."
The Driscoll and Mahoney campaigns have cranked up their attacks on each other since the October Zogby poll became the first of several that showed the contest was a virtual dead heat.
Both have spent thousands of dollars on ads and mailings touting their virtues, blasting each other's records and attacking each other's honesty and ethics, especially over campaign money that Mahoney has taken from Destiny USA associates.
Both, but especially Driscoll, have announced endorsements by labor organizations, minority advocacy groups and big-name politicians. U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's automated voice has been calling Syracuse voters on behalf of Driscoll; former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani's automated message boosting Mahoney is scheduled to begin today.
Hawkins, meanwhile, elaborated on his economic development plan and his arts and culture platform.
The result was a statistically insignificant bump for all three candidates.
Of voters who had made a definite choice, 41 percent said they would vote for Driscoll, 39.7 percent picked Mahoney, and 6.8 percent said they'd go for Hawkins. The remaining 12.5 percent said they were not sure, a 7 percentage point drop from the October survey.
Of those undecided voters, nearly 20 percent said they were leaning toward Driscoll, and nearly 20 percent said they were leaning toward Mahoney. About 4.4 percent said they were leaning toward Hawkins. The rest remained undecided.
The October poll showed Driscoll had support from 39.5 percent of its respondents, compared with 37.4 percent for Mahoney and 3.6 percent for Hawkins. An additional 19.5 percent were undecided. The poll, which had the same margin of error, did not ask undecided voters which way they were leaning.
About half of the voters polled last week - 53.2 percent - said that Driscoll should be replaced by someone new. Poll respondents split evenly on whether Syracuse was heading in the right direction.
That apparent dissatisfaction, however, has not resulted in overwhelming support for Mahoney.
"The public has made a judgment in regards to Matt Driscoll: Voters don't think he has earned re-election, although they like him personally," Zogby said. "They say they want someone new, but apparently Joanie Mahoney is not that someone new."
The poll showed little that gave one major party candidate a clear advantage. Consider:
More respondents said they thought Driscoll would do a better job handling taxes, crime and city services than Mahoney, but said she would do better with schools and economic development than Driscoll. The two tied statistically over who would do best with city neighborhoods and Destiny USA.
Mahoney outpolled Driscoll among men by roughly 10 percentage points. Driscoll outpolled Mahoney among women by roughly 10 percentage points.
Both had about the same degree of support from members of their own parties: About 65 percent of Republicans surveyed backed Mahoney and almost 64 percent of Democrats picked Driscoll. But Mahoney did much better than Driscoll among respondents who said they weren't enrolled in a party. More than half said they backed her, compared with 22 percent who said they'd vote for Driscoll.
Of course, with the race this close, anything can become a determining factor, Zogby said.
A bright spot for Driscoll was his improvement among black voters, which Zogby had identified as a weak point last month.
Nearly 69 percent of all black voters contacted last week said they would vote for Driscoll. In mid-October, a little more than 53 percent of the black voters polled said they supported him.
"This could turn on the African-American vote," Zogby said. "If he gets them out, he wins."
Hawkins could play a role, draining enough votes from Driscoll to turn the election, Zogby said. "He is the great none-of-the-above," Zogby said of Hawkins, whose popularity among likely voters more than doubled over three weeks.
Hawkins said that his numbers would be higher if people weren't worried that a vote for him might help decide the election for one of the other candidates.
"That's the way our system is set up; to push people toward the lesser of two evils even if they like what the third-party candidate is saying," Hawkins said.