Syracuse New Times
by Walt Shepperd
Syracuse's mayoral race will heat up after Labor Day, meaning major party candidates will grow more reserved, rehearsed and repetitive. That leaves less than a month for speculative flights of fancy taken only by the politically naive and veteran observers who have transcended cynicism. The most intriguing scenarios are based on a previous occurrence, creating a factual and emotional, if not logically sequential, precedent. Since more than 90 percent of incumbents are re-elected at every level of office it is almost always challengers who are passengers on those flights.
This season the first scenario is spun by Green Party mayoral candidate Howie Hawkins, who recalls Republican, Conservative and Independence candidate Joanie Mahoney's successful citywide race for the Common Council in 1999. Democrats outnumbered Republicans on the city registration roles by more than 11,000 that year, but Mahoney beat appointed incumbent Joe Callahan by 400 votes. The Rev. Larry Ellis, the Green Party candidate, also ran that race, Hawkins recalled, tallying 800 votes to spoil Callahan's re-election bid. The current registration differential is more than 18,000 in the Democrats' column.
Hawkins sees both major parties split, with a lack of excitement for incumbent Democrat Mayor Matt Driscoll beyond the hardcore in his party and the Republicans suffering from the court battle for their nomination between Mahoney and original designee Randy Wolken. His scenario has dissidents in both parties either staying home or voting for him in protest, combined with growing voter support for Green issues, especially their proposal of a municipal power company, given continued rate hikes from Niagara Mohawk. The result, in his scenario, is a close three-way race which, with or without recently announced YES! (Youth Empowered Sustainability) Party candidate Jacob Roberts on the ballot, could put Mahoney over the top--but only if she pulls significant support from the communities of color.
This scenario gets some resonance in the GOP, especially from newly appointed city party chair Stanley Dean, who is also president of the Central New York Black Republicans. "Howie may be right," Dean said. "But I definitely think Joanie can win." Although admitting that about 85 percent of black voters traditionally pull Democrat levers on Election Day, he predicted Mahoney will get 60 percent of their votes in November.
Dean maintained that many black voters are unhappy with Driscoll because the Democrat ward committee did not designate first-term incumbent 4th District Councilor Tom Seals for re-election. He added that the move alienated the Working Families Party, which provided the campaign workers who got out the winning vote for Seals in the 2003 Democrat primary.
"The black people who are going out to vote are the informed voters," Dean said. "They know the city's falling apart. They know there are no African-American policymakers in City Hall. They know we have no one advocating for the African-Americans in City Hall. They know there is no trickle down of jobs from City Hall. Usually they cream some off the top, but now we don't even have that. With all the failed projects and delays, they know there's no substance in City Hall. They're tired of the smoke and mirrors, what we're calling the banana in the tailpipe syndrome. Joanie's team is full of African-Americans. I'm city chair and Otis {Jennings} is running for Common Council president."
For all the flights of political fancy, however, there is always a wet mop of reality in the face, this time chronicled by Alliance Network coordinator Walter Dixie. Four years ago, the network paid for a poll on the candidates for the Democrats' mayoral primary and decided to endorse Driscoll. Dixie has said it can be shown statistically that black voters gave Driscoll the nomination. At the time he insisted that the move would result in a seat for him at the City Hall policymaking table. But when a Herald-American analysis profiled Driscoll's inner circle, the front page's photos were all Caucasian.
"I don't feel slighted," Dixie said this week, responding to Hawkins' scenario. "{Alliance Network} has monthly meetings with the mayor. My voice has been there. I get to debrief with his team on most issues." Dixie maintained there has been no waning of support for Driscoll in the black community, noting that while most of the mayor's town hall meetings have been lucky to draw 50 residents from a neighborhood, one held at King School, 416 E. Raynor Ave., was crowded with more than 300.
"He appointed Frank Fowler over opposition and it cost him the endorsement of the Police Benevolent Association which he had last time," Dixie noted of Driscoll's promotion of an African-American sergeant to deputy chief in the Syracuse Police Department. "He's holding firm with {proposed megamall} Destiny USA and the Hotel Syracuse and the sales tax formula, trying to get the best deal he can for the city. The Joint School Construction bill {Gov. George} Pataki just vetoed had a training component and a standard of 25 percent minority employment. Maybe the good things he has done, he hasn't figured out how to express. It's the subtle things. Sometimes it isn't sexy enough. At the end of the day nobody can make everybody happy. Mayor is the thankless job of all time."
For Dixie, the wettest strands of the mop drip financial. "At the July 15 filing period," he noted, "Matt had $350,000 in his campaign fund. That was before {state Attorney General Eliot} Spitzer came and they raised another $100,000. Joanie didn't file for July 15, which means she had less than $1,000."
But then in 1993, with Democrats holding an edge of 8,000 in voter registration, former Republican Mayor Roy Bernardi came from 24 points behind in the polls to beat Democrat Joe Nicoletti. So stuff happens, and in love and politics, you never know.
Posted by syracusegreens at August 10, 2005 02:54 AM