Hawkins at 6%
Syracuse Post-Standard
Mark Weiner
October 9th, 2008
Dan Maffei poll shows he has an 18-point lead
Democrat Dan Maffei has opened an 18-point lead over Republican Dale Sweetland heading into the final weeks of their campaign for Congress, according to a new poll of likely voters.
Maffei leads Sweetland, 49 percent to 31 percent, the poll showed, with 6 percent supporting Green Populist candidate Howie Hawkins and 14 percent undecided. The poll's margin of error was about 4 percent.
The poll of 501 likely voters in the 25th Congressional District was paid for by the Maffei campaign, which hired the Boston opinion research firm Kiley & Company, a Democratic pollster that has worked for candidates nationwide.
Other poll results
Among other findings reported by Kiley & Company in its poll of likely voters in the 25th Congressional District:
Support for president:
Barack Obama: 50 percent
John McCain: 42 percent
Favorability ratings for President George W. Bush:
Favorable: 27 percent
Unfavorable: 71 percent
Methodology: Sample size: 501 likely voters. Margin of error: plus or minus 4 percent. Interview length: 14 minutes. Interviews were conducted by telephone from a central, monitored location, during evening hours on Oct. 1-2, 2008. The sample was drawn from an up-to-date computer file of all registered voters in the 25th Congressional District. Respondents were screened to ensure their likelihood of voting in the Nov. 2008 general election. The turnout model was based on turnout patterns in the district in both the 2006 and 2004 general elections, updated to reflect the changes in enrollment in the district since those elections. The geographic breakdown of the sample is as follows: 68 percent reside in Onondaga County; 18 percent in Monroe County; 12 percent in Wayne County; 2 percent in Cayuga County.
The Sweetland campaign, when shown the questions and results, denounced the pollster as partisan and suggested the poll was manipulated to push respondents to favor Maffei.
Bill Rapp, Sweetland's campaign manager, said he could not offer specific proof of a push-poll, nor was he willing to release any of his own polling data to show a different result. Rapp said his campaign polled voters in early August.
The Kiley & Co. poll shows Maffei widened his lead from 12 points (38 percent to 26 percent) in mid-August as voter concern about the nation's economic crisis increased in recent weeks, said Matthew Shelter, a senior analyst for Kiley & Company.
"I think there are two things going on," Shelter said in an interview. "One is that Democrats are much stronger in support of Democratic candidates than Republicans are. And secondly, I think the Republican brand has been hit hard by what's happening on Wall Street."
In fact, Maffei has solidified his support among Democrats (holding a 74 percent to 10 percent advantage) while picking up support from Republicans (28 percent for Maffei to 54 percent for Sweetland).
Maffei also did well among independent voters who are not enrolled in a party in the 25th district. Maffei leads Sweetland by 51 percent to 21 percent among unaffiliated voters, according to the poll.
National polls have shown voters blame President Bush and Republicans for the nation's economic ills more than Democrats, fueling the presidential campaign of Barack Obama in recent weeks as he widened his lead over John McCain.
Maffei has benefited from a huge spending advantage over Sweetland, raising more than $1.5 million for his campaign compared to about $200,000 for Sweetland, according to their latest campaign disclosure reports.
The national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has also paid for more than $100,000 worth of TV commercials attacking Sweetland, while national Republicans have declined to come to his defense.
Rapp, Sweetland's campaign manager, declined to discuss his campaign's own polling results. But he accused Maffei's pollster of trying to push voters to give the answer they want to here.
"This is a push-poll without question," Rapp said. "They obviously have engaged in deceptive polling practices. I think oftentimes pollsters can get the results they wanted."
When shown the question asked of voters in the head-to-head matchups, Rapp conceded there was nothing wrong with the way the question was worded. But he said nobody knows the tone that operators used when reading those questions to respondents.
Rapp also suggested that Kiley & Co. "has a tainted reputation" from a survey of Philadelphia voters in 2002 that Rapp characterized as a push-poll.
Kiley has polled for clients that include New York Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, Massachusetts Gov. Deveal Patrick and the Democrat who ran against Gov. Sarah Palin in Alaska.
The Maffei campaign declined to respond to Rapp's charges.
"Dan has been running a positive campaign and he knows voters want to hear about the issues that affect their lives," said Maffei campaign manager Dan Krupnick. "These poll results are a clear reflection of the electorate's desire to move in a new direction."
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