Stark contrasts in race to succeed Walsh
Syracuse Post-Standard
Mark Weiner
September 14th, 2008
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In 51 days, Americans will choose a new president and members of Congress in what many view as one of the biggest "change" elections in U.S. history.
But Central New Yorkers won't have to wait until Nov. 4 to find out if change will hit home: No matter what happens in the voting booth, a local transformation is on its way.
The 25th Congressional District, which includes Syracuse and its suburbs, will elect its first new congressman in 20 years.
Rep. James Walsh, R-Onondaga, who became one of the most powerful and senior Republicans during 10 terms in the House of Representatives, has decided to retire. He was first elected in 1988.
His departure leaves a rare open congressional seat in Upstate New York, attracting attention from both national parties and the Washington political establishment.
It also sets up one of the most hotly contested House races in the nation, a showdown where the two major-party candidates have stark contrasts in their backgrounds, positions and styles.
On one side is Republican Dale Sweetland, 59, of Fabius, a former farmer with a high school degree who served 20 years in elected office, including six years as chairman of the Onondaga County Legislature.
On the other side is Democrat Dan Maffei, 40, of DeWitt, a Syracuse native who left town to earn three Ivy League degrees before working for a decade as a congressional staffer in Washington.
Even though Maffei has never held elected office, he came within 3,400 votes of upsetting Walsh in 2006. It was the year Democrats recaptured control of Congress on a nationwide wave of discontent with the Iraq war and 12 years of mostly Republican control of the House and Senate.
This time around, more than $1.5 million has flowed into Maffei's campaign, giving him a huge financial and organizational advantage over Sweetland.
Sweetland -- who entered the race late, after Republican Peter Cappuccilli Jr. withdrew for health reasons -- has raised $193,000, according to Federal Election Commission disclosure reports.
Although neither side has revealed the results of their polling, the top non-partisan political analysts in Washington, D.C., have come to the same conclusion: Maffei is favored to win. Nobody has picked Sweetland.
David Wasserman, an editor of the Cook Political Report, said his independent newsletter rated the 25th District race as "likely Democratic." He said the rating was "based on Republicans' low level of enthusiasm for Dale Sweetland's candidacy."
He said it is clear that national Republicans and outside groups who could help the Sweetland campaign from Washington have decided to spend their money elsewhere.
"The question is whether outside groups are willing to come in and save the district," Wasserman said. "A number of Republicans clearly see this as a lost cause."
He added, "Walsh had a very tough time holding on to this seat, and the national environment this time for Republicans is just as bad in 2008 if not worse."
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has made the 25th District race one of its top 10 priorities for this election, helping to raise extra money to support Maffei.
The reason: The district is among only eight in the country that Democratic Sen. John Kerry won in the 2004 presidential race but are still held by a Republican member of Congress.
The financial edge has helped Maffei on two fronts:
First, the Maffei campaign has built a relatively large organization for a local House race. It has 11 full-time paid staffers and one part-time paid staffer, along with a growing group of unpaid interns and volunteers.
The Sweetland campaign has three full-time paid staffers. It has 12 others who are unpaid full-time and part-time volunteers. Even Sweetland's campaign manager, Bill Rapp, is a full-time volunteer. Asked why he agrees to work for free, Rapp said, "I'm doing this for my country."
Second, the financial advantage allowed Maffei to begin airing TV commercials July 8 in the Syracuse area -- early for a congressional campaign. The campaign claims it will stay on the air with commercials every day through Election Day.
Maffei's most recent financial disclosure report shows that he spent $500,000 on TV commercials and production time for July and August. The campaign declined to say how much money it plans to spend in the next two months.
Sweetland plans to roll out a modest series of television commercials this week. His campaign declined to say how much money he will spend.
Rapp, Sweetland's campaign manager, concedes his candidate has had difficulty persuading Republicans to donate to a campaign so far behind in fundraising.
"There are a lot of people who believe races are won by the size of your bank bookbankbook," Rapp said, adding Sweetland is determined to prove them wrong. "We're going to make history here."
The strategies
From the top of the ticket to the bottom, it seems every candidate is promising change this year, pledging to fix a "broken" federal government, from Congress to the White House.
Maffei, Sweetland and Green Populist Party candidate Howie Hawkins, of Syracuse, all promise their own brand of change.
Sweetland touts himself as a Washington outsider who will keep an independent streak. He calls Maffei a career Washington insider who will simply follow the direction of his party leaders.
"I think Dale Sweetland is going to be more of an independent voice," said Rapp, the campaign manager. "I think Dan (Maffei) is going to owe a lot of favors if he gets down there."
Maffei maintains that he is the real agent of change. He calls Sweetland a career politician with old ideas and notes that Republicans have been in control of the region through a decades-long economic decline.
"It's all about change and how it relates to affecting people's lives," said Michael Whyland, Maffei's communications director. "It's basic pocketbook issues. This race is all about creating jobs and providing a new direction for Central New York."
He added, "It comes down to who is best positioned to bring change to Central New York. Dan Maffei is clearly the person who is in that position because he has the experience and new ideas."
In recent weeks, the two sides have strayed somewhat from the issues and started attacks on each other's character.
Maffei's campaign expressed outrage when Sweetland missed a deadline to file a financial disclosure report with the Federal Election Commission. The FEC could issue fines for the violation.
"If this guy can't play by the rules, how can we expect him to do so as a congressman?" asked Dan Krupnick, Maffei's campaign manager. "These reports are important. The most important thing you can have is transparency in government, and apparently Dale is afraid of that."
Sweetland's campaign blamed the missed deadline on a volunteer's mistake.
At the same time, Sweetland went on the attack against Maffei. He criticized Maffei for accepting campaign donations from his former boss on Capitol Hill, Rep. Charlie Rangel, D-Harlem, chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee.
Rangel admitted this month that he owes thousands of dollars in back taxes for failing to disclose $75,000 in rental income from a villa in the Dominican Republic.
As a result of that disclosure, Sweetland and the national party have called for Maffei to return more than $57,000 Rangel raised for him this summer at a birthday party in New York City. Of 10 candidates Rangel selected to benefit from the event, Maffei received the largest amount.
The Sweetland campaign plans to continue making an issue of the connection between Rangel and Maffei. Maffei worked for Rangel on the House Ways and Means Committee from 1998 to 2005.
"I think it's going to be one of our strategies to bring this to the public eye again," Rapp said. "We're going to remind the people of Western and Central New York where his money comes from."
Grant Reeher, a political scientist at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, said both candidates would be smart to stick to the issues and forget about arguing who is the better agent for change.
"I think the question of trying to figure out which one is the traditional politician is not particularly useful," Reeher said. "The real question is, 'What kind of policy positions will each of them take? And how will each of them vote?' "
The struggling economy and unpopular presidency of George W. Bush should help Maffei, Reeher said.
"If you step back and look at this and consider the current political context, you would think Dan Maffei would have the advantage here," Reeher said. "On paper, it's a very good year for the Democrats. There's this great dissatisfaction with the policies of the Bush administration. And the Democrats have been trending well in the district."
Indeed, Democrats have passed Republicans to gain a slight enrollment edge in Onondaga County (101,792 to 97,873) and still trail by about 13,000 in the 25th District, which includes Wayne County and parts of Cayuga and Monroe counties.
Reeher cautioned that money and party enrollment don't make a successful candidate, and said it's still conceivable for Sweetland to pull off a victory. No matter who wins, he said, it will be important for their party.
"You could imagine whoever wins this, going forward into future elections, will be quite strong for some time," he said.
Washington bureau reporter Mark Weiner can be reached at mweiner@syracuse.com or 202-383-7818.
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